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The prolong trade fight between the U.S. and China dominated the attention of investors for maximum time of 2019 – but that will probably be overshadowed by tensions between the United States and Iran this year, a consultant of political risk forecasted on Monday. The director of Alavam Business Advisory and a previous British diplomat, Alastair Newton, said that he thinks Iran is going to be a more serious issue for investors this year rather than U.S.-China.
Newton forecast there will be more retaliation of Iran this year after Tehran fired several missiles at two Iraqi bases housing United States troops last week – a move they took in revenge to the United States killing of top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani. He did not say how Iran could hit back, but other analysts said that forthcoming moves might include anger by Iranian proxy groups in the region.
Furthermore, Newton added that the tension between the United States and Iran just going from bad to worse. And there are no signs that both sides could turn to negotiation table to resolve their fight. His comment came as the President of the United States, Donald Trump said on his Twitter account that he couldn’t care less if Iran settles on negotiation.
National Security Adviser suggested today that sanctions & protests have Iran “choked off”, will force them to negotiate. Actually, I couldn’t care less if they negotiate. Will be totally up to them but, no nuclear weapons and “don’t kill your protesters.”
Newton said that Tehran would not want to negotiate with Donald Trump either. The authorities of Iran are not going to dialogue with Trump, and the Iranians will hope that Trump will face defeat in 2020 U.S. presidential election, and they have a various democratic party administration to deal with.
Iran still an important Threat in the Middle East
Newton said that in general, Iran remains a big threat in the Middle East. That’s regardless of the leadership of the country is facing huge pressure from protests in different cities of Iran. These protests started just after the military self-confessed that it had shot down the Ukrainian passenger plane mistakenly. Without any doubt, the authorities will crack down if they sense that the government is under serious threat, Newton added. He also pointed out that the present regime has a background of brutally putting down protests and will do it again if they feel any need of it.
In addition, he said that the shooting down of the Ukrainian airliner could result in a changing of guards within Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran, making way for the young generation of officers trained by General Soleimani to take over. Newton specifies that Soleimani was a particularly cruel man but exceptionally good in military affairs.
