According to the statistics of the new Marquette Law School poll, Joe Biden, the former Vice President of the United States, took a 46 percent to 43 percent lead over Donald Trump, the President of the United States in Wisconsin. The poll results match the results of the last poll from Marquette, in which Biden had three points lead in Wisconsin.
A new Marquette Law School poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 46% to 43% lead over President Donald Trump in Wisconsin. https://t.co/j6tSMMwJC6
— CNN (@CNN) May 18, 2020
One can check the accuracy of the polls is to compare the poll results of any state to the previous presidential vote in that particular state. It did the same until now all telephone polls that termed cell phones since the start of April. After calculating the average of these state polls, they suggest that the running of the former vice president about six points ahead of the final margin of Hilary Clinton.
In simple words, the polls at the state level suggest that Joe Biden has a national lead of about eight points, which is a little more than the 6.6 points the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee has in the high-quality general voting average pick during the same duration. If we weigh the average of state ballots to each state’s population, there is a margin just north of that 6.6-point mark.
State polls suggest Biden has a clear national lead: The state level polls suggest that Biden has a national lead of around 8 points. That’s actually a little greater than the 6.6 points Biden has in national polling average taken during the same period. https://t.co/lUXX48uz47
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) May 18, 2020
Biden has a fairly generous national advantage
All approaches agree that the former vice president has a massive national advantage. After taking the results from over twenty polls and over fifteen thousand interviews, the collective error margin is small. In addition, one can look at some states that analysts expect to be at least fairly competitive such as those states where the margin was within ten points last time and those states that they do not think will be close in 2020.
“The state level polls suggest that Biden has a national lead of around 8 points…all methods agree that Biden has a fairly sizable national advantage.” @ForecasterEnten: https://t.co/G4uiqNWTH2 https://t.co/EgcrW6h3aQ
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) May 17, 2020
In the most competitive states that mostly conducted their polling, Biden swing average six points towards himself as compared to the 2016 result of Clinton. The same is true in other non-competitive states. At least from the statistics of this state level, it doesn’t seem that either contender is running up the score excessively in regions that are already friendly to him.
Biden posted lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan
Biden posted leads of more than five points in areas such as Pennsylvania and Michigan. He is ahead in over enough states to capture two hundred and seventy electoral votes if the election held today. One can test these statistics, to see what might happen if the elections underestimate Donald Trump similar to they did in 2016.
The ballots underestimated the President by one point or two points in the total number of the states currently polling from. Applying that bias of 2016 to current figures, Biden might have a 6-7-point lead countrywide. Whereas just concentrating on the competitive states, the ballots understated Trump by two points or three points. If the elections in the competitive states were off by as more as they were at the 2016 end, Biden would still be ahead in states such as Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan.