Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic Presidential candidate, takes a lead of seven points margin over Donald Trump, the President of the United States in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll on Sunday. However, Biden’s close to fifty percent (such as 49%), while Trump is too far away from Biden with only 42% in the poll.
Joe Biden hits a milestone Hillary Clinton never did from June onward: 50%. Unlike four years ago, Trump will likely need to win back voters who are already backing the Dem nominee. https://t.co/c0IQcTdPyM
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) June 7, 2020
The average of live interview polls released last Sunday, and the former vice president manages to conceal fifty percent (fifty-one percent). For now, Biden has a majority, a key milestone for him. The comeback of Trump in 2016 was made significantly easier by the fact Hillary Clinton of Democratic party was not polling close to fifty percent. Previously, Biden also took lead over Trump in Wisconsin.
The June 2016 average live interview poll had Clinton at a mere forty-two percent. From those polls, not a single poll even touched fifty-percent. Actually, she never came close to the polls’ average during the rest of the campaign in 2016. Meanwhile, Biden reached at least fifty-percent in three different live interview polls such as Washington Post/ABC News, PBS/NPR NewsHour/Marist College and Monmouth University, last week.
Trump is facing different situation this 2020 election than in 2016
When Donald Trump covered the breach in the waning days of the 2016 presidential campaign, at that time, he needed to convince some limited voters of Clinton to vote for him. Also, the President only had to gain the support of undecided voters or those supporting a third-party contender. At present, the path of Trump will be tough if not next to impossible to win the 2020 presidential elections if he does not take back supporters who are already backing Biden.
Furthermore, other previous examples are not too kind to Trump either. At this stage, the only other opponent who was at or soaring about fifty percent was Jimmy Carter in 1976. He won at that point.
Harry Truman is the encouraging hope for Trump as he is the one mandatory President who was trailing outside the error margin at this stage in his bid for 2nd term, which came back to win.
Additionally, Donald Trump was the only President with an overall negative approval rating (approval – disapproval) less than negative five points at the moment in the campaign to reelect.
Major Problem for Donald Trump
The big problem for the U.S. President is that the Republican opponent of Truman, Thomas Dewey’s average poll at this stage, is at forty-six percent. Therefore, even as the advantage of the former vice president over the President in these polls is below two points greater than Dewey’s was more than Truman (only south of nine points), the earning of Biden around five points more support from voters. Dewey just did not have voters pledging to him the same way Biden at this stage.
The need for Trump to convince and snatch those voters towards his side who are not already with the other side reflects in another way. The disapproval rating of Trump in the average poll is about fifty-four percent. No other president at this stage in the United States history in the polling era had a disapproval rating this high margin before their chance to reelect for the second time.
Truman’s poll was forty-seven percent, as his approval rating suffered at thirty-nine percent. However, there was a majority of U.S. nationals who at least approve him. In 2016, Trump proved that he could challenge history. If Trump wants to win the 2nd term in 2020, he needs to have to make some.