A recent Monmouth University survey of Pennsylvania voters finds Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee at fifty-two percent to Donald Trump forty-two percent, across various turnout models. The poll of Monmouth looks most similar to the NY Times/Siena College poll of June that put Democratic nominee ahead by ten points.
— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) July 20, 2020
Undoubtedly, Biden is leading the contest for president now. He is beating Trump with an edge nationally and in the main swing states such as Pennsylvania. Regardless of all these numbers, analysts continuously point to the 2016 General Elections in order to dismiss or at least put a major symbol on the advantage of Biden.
Difference between Biden and Hillary position
Biden, the former Vice President of the United States, has a better position at poll than Hillary Clinton was at that time in 2016. There is only one comparison in these two races, and that is Trump as a common rival against these two Democratic nominees. Four years back, the polls released at this stage led just before the Republican convention got underway.
Biden was up double-digits in a Monmouth poll in PA this past week. Clinton was up by about 1 or 2 on average in PA at this point in 2016. It’s another indication that Biden continues to run well ahead of Clinton’s pace. https://t.co/70biwPjimO
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 19, 2020
Polls held from the start of July to the mid of the month, and this duration is generally before the key party conventions. Voters have a tendency to have a good knowledge of who the contestant is, and they do not have to worry about the brief convention bounces showing up in the surveys. In mid-July, the contest in Pennsylvania was too close.
However, Monmouth was not active in Pennsylvania at the start of July 2020; Quinnipiac University and Marist College were. The average of their surveys put Hillary Clinton at thirty-nine percent to Trump’s thirty-eight percent. In simple words, the edge of Clinton was more than Trump within an error margin. Actually, it was only two points different from the final election margin in Pennsylvania (Donald Trump by a point).
The lead of Biden is outside the margin of error at this stage. Rather than that, Clinton was not only under fifty percent in the polls, and she was under forty percent. On the other side, Biden is at fifty percent in the average poll in Pennsylvania and over that in the poll of Monmouth. Previously, over fifty percent margin is a key maker because to win Pennsylvania at this stage, Trump may need to influence voters who are supporting Biden to switch to him.